Time for ASEAN to rethink a single currency amid global trade tensions
Dr Uma Murthy Dr Paul Anthony Maria Das As global economic uncertainties continue to mount, Southeast Asia stands at a strategic crossroads. The recent surge in trade tensions, particularly those stemming from the United States’ (U.S.) tariff policies and restrictive trade measures, has reignited discussions across Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) about the need for greater financial and monetary integration. One idea, long debated but never realised, has resurfaced with renewed urgency – the adoption of a single ASEAN currency. The U.S. has increasingly adopted protectionist trade practices, disrupted global supply chains and raised the cost of doing business. The ongoing U.S.–China tariff war, for example, continues to unsettle ASEAN exporters, particularly in electronics, palm oil, and rubber. According to the World Bank, the Southeast Asian region could lose an estimated US$13 billion annually due to ripple effects from trade fragmentation and tariff hikes.[1] Currency volatility adds another layer of unpredictability. The Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Indonesian rupiah have all experienced significant depreciation against the U.S. dollar over the past year, making imports more expensive and external debt burdens heavier. A single regional currency could act as a buffer, shielding ASEAN economies from external shocks and speculative currency attacks. The European Union’s adoption of the euro has created one of the largest and most stable currency unions in the world, bringing 19 countries under a unified monetary policy. While challenges remain — as seen during the Greek debt crisis — the benefits of the euro in promoting price stability, enhancing trade, and reducing transaction costs are undeniable. Eurozone trade within member states rose by over 50% in the first decade of the euro’s introduction, according to data from the European Central Bank.[2] ASEAN already has some groundwork laid. The Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM), […]